GTS Mischler ETF Weekly

Summary:

• Fed Powell’s comments after the rate decision last Wednesday mashed stocks into the close but sentiment changed apparently last Thursday and Friday as SPX rallied to close the week at 5127.79, slightly below its 50-day MA of 5129.98. It now sits approximately 2.5% below its intraday 52-week high of 5264.85 touched on 3/28/24. We suppose that strong quarterly earnings from the #2 component in SPX, AAPL (5.83%) did not hurt, as the stock rallied 5.98% last Friday. Trading volume was largely unexciting last week however, with okay levels last Wednesday during FOMC day as SPY for example traded 80.2 million shares that day as compared to its trailing 3-month ADV of 71.6 million shares and its trailing 1-month ADV of 72.7 million shares. During the other trading sessions last week, volume was somewhat unremarkable, with 46.4 million shares trading in SPY last Monday, 77.4 million on Tuesday, 62.5 million on Thursday, and 72.7 million shares last Friday. SPY also led all U.S. based Equity ETFs in outflows last week topping $3.8 billion, making a total of >$24 billion that has left the fund YTD. VIX, which had a 21 handle briefly only 11 trading sessions prior fell into a freefall lower, closing the week at 13.49 and now well below its 200-day MA (14.90 and 50-day MA (14.85). VIX options flow reflected this sudden “Risk On” as we did not see the out-of-the money call buying from previous weeks in VIX but instead witnessed sellers of May 20, 16, and 15 calls (closing), and buyers of May 15, 14, 13.50 and 13 puts.
• QQQ – Near-term May 10th expiry 438 call buyers ahead of AAPL’s earnings last week.
• IWM put buying continued amid YTD outflows.
• FXI & KWEB bullish options activity on continued China strength.
• TLT & BKLN bearish put buying but LQD and IEF bullish call buying/put selling around the FOMC last week.
• URA upside call buying.
• Last week a new ETF launched in which GTS is Lead Market Maker (LMM), PSTR (PeakShares Sector Rotation) – https://www.calton.com/